Who Will Pay Your Pension? The Question Populists Won’t Answer

Authors:  Lina Vosyliūtė and Tijesunimi Agbaje

As Europe’s workforce shrinks and its population ages, a critical question looms: Who will sustain our pension system? While right-wing populists and ethno-nationalists focus on blaming migrants, they remain silent on the fundamental reality that without migration, Europe’s economic and social welfare systems face an unsustainable future.

The Hard Facts: Europe’s Aging Workforce Crisis

The numbers speak for themselves. In 2001, the old-age dependency ratio comparing the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population stood at 25.9%, meaning there were nearly four working-age individuals per retiree. By 2019, that number had risen to 34.1%, leaving fewer than three working-age individuals per retiree. Projections for 2050 paint an even more alarming picture, with the ratio expected to skyrocket to 56.7%, meaning fewer than two working-age individuals per retiree (Eurostat, 2020).

The situation is even more severe in certain EU countries. Italy is expected to reach a dependency ratio of 66.5%, Greece 68.1%, and Portugal 68.8% figures that indicate extreme labor shortages. Even if migration were fully embraced and migrants were successfully integrated into the workforce, their numbers would still not fully compensate for the demographic decline. Yet, instead of preparing for these challenges with sustainable policies, European governments continue to frame migration as a security threat rather than an economic necessity.

EU Migration Policies: A Crisis of Short-Term Thinking

Despite the overwhelming demographic evidence, migration policies across the EU remain short-sighted. Far-right narratives have shaped mainstream political discourse, leading to policies that prioritize border control and deportation over inclusion and workforce sustainability. As a result, instead of proactively addressing labor shortages, governments resort to last-minute solutions that fail to account for long-term economic needs.

Malta provides a cautionary example. Over the past decade, the government responded to economic stagnation with a rapid influx of ‘guest workers’ from South-East Asia, an approach that was neither strategic nor sustainable. These last-minute labor imports highlight what happens when policymakers delay necessary migration reforms and then rush to fill labor gaps in unsystematic ways. This pattern is being repeated in other EU nations, where migration remains an untouched political taboo rather than a proactive solution.

The Reality Few Talk About

While the political debate remains polarized, evidence shows that many EU countries have already been implementing migration regularization programs just not openly. Research by OSCE ODIHR (2021) and Baldwin-Edwards and Kraler (2009) confirms that 24 EU countries have conducted regularization programs for undocumented migrants in an effort to sustain their economies. Spain has taken a more transparent approach, granting legal status to 300,000 undocumented migrants annually to meet labor market demands (Euronews, 2024).

Germany, despite its strict asylum policies, has created the Duldung system, which places over 120,000 people in legal limbo yet many eventually gain legal status (Peitz, 2025). Deportation, often portrayed as the default response to migration, is in reality the exception rather than the norm. In Germany, for example, only 10% of rejected asylum seekers are forcibly removed (Peitz, 2025). These figures contrast sharply with the UK’s headline-grabbing mass deportation policies, which fail to acknowledge the economic necessity of migration.

Migration is Not a Crisis It’s an Economic Necessity

Despite the political fearmongering, public concern over migration is not actually about migration itself it is about healthcare, employment, and pensions. The irony is that all three of these concerns are directly linked to Europe’s shrinking workforce, a challenge that migration could help alleviate.

Economic research supports this. The IMF (2016) found that integrating refugees into the labor market has a lasting positive impact on economic growth and public finances. Although the rate of aging in Europe still far exceeds the number of migrants arriving, managed migration remains one of the only viable solutions for sustaining the workforce and pension systems in the long term.

It’s Time for Honest Policy Reform

The conversation around migration must shift from fear to facts. Europe’s economic and demographic realities demand systemic solutions—not political scapegoating. Instead of presenting migration as a crisis, leaders must acknowledge that it is essential to the future of European economies.

No one is illegal. In today’s dehumanizing political narratives, this simple truth is too often forgotten.

The question remains: Will Europe finally move beyond short-term fixes and adopt long-term migration policies? Or will it continue to postpone reality until it is too late?